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Triumph & Defeat (Shaitan Wars Book 4) Page 14
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“A fairly sound defensive move, which I am almost certain the Warmaster must have ordered. If that is all I were to do, however, then I have failed in my duty as the Warmaster. Surely my primary duty as the leader of the warrior caste and the Warmaster is to destroy the enemy completely?” Elvis asked rhetorically. Humans had started understanding Shaitan sociology and psychology fairly well since the Alpha Shaitan campaign.
“That it would be,” this time it was Capt. Ronald Lowe who replied. “The trouble as the Warmaster, that I would have, would be that I cannot show my hand too early. If I were to scramble all my space based assets and platforms immediately to go and hide behind some rock, then the humans who must surely be watching their target would suspect something and might start peeling off at a 90⁰ angle and make my job of destroying the human ships difficult.
“So I would give orders to all space based assets to make very subtle changes to their orbit in a seemingly random staggered manner using as little rocket thrust as possible. The orbits will be calculated such that the humans should be able to see most of the space based assets orbiting as usual. It would only be in the last few hours before we are to cross Beta Shaitan that those orbits would all converge to take them behind their respective moons. By that time it would be too late for the humans to do anything about it.
“Once I have covered that aspect of the deception, then I would concentrate on destroying the two fast approaching human ships. Since I know exactly where the two human ships would cross Beta Shaitan, I would send a few ships to that exact point. Here again I will have to be subtle about it. I would have to assume that the humans can see all ships and their movements close to Beta Shaitan due to the gas giant’s Infrared glow. So if I place a few Shaitan warships squarely on the path of the human ships, the humans would smell a rat.
“Hence, I would subtly modify the patrol pattern of the ships, which the humans can anyway observe are patrolling the system. If I, the Warmaster am lucky then the humans would hopefully not notice that the path of the patrols, which ostensibly seem to be in different directions, would miraculously converge in the general vicinity of the point of crossing of the human ships around the time of the crossing.” Capt. Lowe finished his speculation.
“There is one problem that the Warmaster would still face…Weapons!” Elvis said half to himself. “More precisely, the choice of weapon to target our ships. The speed at which we are travelling, it would be next to impossible for him to accurately target us with his nukes. The probability of one hitting us is very slim. The ideal weapon to take us down would be some kind of a frag missile. Something that is capable of spreading a huge volume of fragments on our path to ensure that one hits us. A single fragment weighing a few hundred grams should do the job… sand of the kind spread by our MKK-1 missile would probably be an even better choice. It increases the probability of hitting us significantly and does an equally good job of killing a ship at our speed.
“The only difference these hypothetical sand missiles would have to have from our MKK-1s, would be that they would have to have higher acceleration and endurance. The hypothetical sand missiles would have to have the load capacity and the range similar to those monster nuclear missiles that the Shaitans have, because we might turn 90⁰ at any moment and try to run. In which case those hypothetical sand missiles would have to give us a chase. I am speculating about this hypothetical weapon, of course.
“There is no way to figure out what the Warmaster is actually planning to use as a weapon. If I had been in his place, I would have seen the effectiveness of the MKK-1 and would have designed such a hypothetical weapon for defense against human attacks, but the Shaitans have not shown such quick adaptability yet in these many decades of war. We will know soon enough how clever the opposing Warmaster is…” Elvis was interrupted by a ding sounding out on the screen. He opened up the channel and Lt. Mansell informed him that the calculations that he had requested were complete.
“Sir, if we were to need any more proof that we have been detected then we need look no further. The computer analyzed each and every individual ship and platform in space around the Beta Shaitan system. As you suspected almost all of them have done minor adjustment of their course in the last three days. The timing has been random, and a few are yet to move, but I suspect that these will also start moving in the next few days trying to make the timing of their change of orbit look random.
“The computer analysis does not say that all of the space crafts would be behind their respective moons at the time of our crossing with their current change in orbit, but points in the direction where these space crafts are progressively making orbit changes and would most likely, be eventually in such an orbit and hidden behind the moons at the time of the crossing. I guess the space crafts are making slow and subtle orbital changes to not give away the game.
“The other thing you had asked to compute was the path and changes in the path of the patrol ships. Two patrol ships orbiting on the other side of Beta Shaitan have broken away. This we had observed earlier, but hadn’t given too much heed because those two patrol ships’ path brought them nowhere close to Beta Shaitan, and they were on the other side of Beta Shaitan in any case. Now with the increased scrutiny on the movement of all ships, the computer has thrown up an interesting fact.
The two ships would not be on our path at the time of our crossing Beta Shaitan, but since these two Shaitan warships are much further away, they don’t need to be on our path at that time. Their trajectory is such that when we cross these two ships a few hours later on the other side of Beta Shaitan, their paths will cross with ours. So, I believe we have identified our interceptor war vessels. That part of the calculations, sir, is not the unexpected news. What is unexpected, is this pattern that the computer has thrown up.” Lt. Mansell projected the pattern on the screen.
The pattern highlighted the expected path based on extrapolation of the current path of eight Shaitan warships, which were in the vicinity of the moons of the Beta Shaitan system. These eight warships of the Shaitans had been narrowed upon after the computer noticed a curious pattern in their position at the time the two human ships would be crossing Dante. As the seemingly random paths of the eight ships were frozen at the time of the crossing, and the positions was highlighted in blue, it became obvious that the blue dots made a roughly circular pattern on the plane through which the two human ships would cross Dante.
One ship each would get into position at the North, East, West, South, North-East, South-East, South-West and North-West. Then the computer drew a single red dot right at the center of this rough circle. It was the position at which the two human ships would cross the plane! These eight ships would effectively encircle the area around which the human ships would cross Dante!
Lt. Mansell continued speaking. “I guess eight warships might look like an over kill, but you need that many to ensure that if we peeled off at a 90⁰ angle in any direction there would be a Shaitan warship to cover us in roughly the same direction. I took the liberty to calculate a bit further. Even if we stated peeling off in a 90⁰ angle right now in any random direction, we would still have one of those warships reasonably close to us when we cross Dante. Close enough for that ship to send missiles to intercept our path, sir.”
“Alright… the Warmaster has signaled his intent. He is not going to let us pass. At least, he is going to try very hard, and is willing to commit as much resources as needed to destroy us. He has put two warships in our path and eight warships surrounding that path to be able to catch us, were we to peel off in any direction. What I cannot understand is this. Every warship that the Warmaster does not hide and puts close to our path, may have a better chance of hitting us, but conversely is equally vulnerable and likely to be targeted by us. Why would the Warmaster put ten of his warships in danger, just to take out two human ships?” Elvis asked no one in particular. This was a question to which humans would know the answer only a few decades later.
Elvis thanked Lt. Mansell
and cut the line. Then he asked his two captains in a grave tone. “Captains, what we decide as our next move will be not just a test of our military capabilities, but a test of our characters. The die has been cast. We are unlikely to have any target of opportunity in space other than those ten warships. If we are to stay our course and not try to run in a 90⁰ angle, then our MKK-1 missiles have a fairly good chance of killing those two warships standing on our path, because the two warships will have no option but to stay there.
“If we choose to run, then those two warships will not need to stay on our path, and would surely move away, anticipating our missiles. The MKK-1 missile do not have the range to chase down those two warships. However, by staying on our course, we would make the task of those two warships to destroy us easier, and to that extent may sign our own death warrant.
“On the other hand, if we choose to run in a 90⁰ angle, then increase our chances of survival. Depending on the direction we decide to run, we would either have one warship close to us or two warships at a bit further distance at the time of crossing Dante. The missiles of those ships would have to chase us down and at 90⁰ angle. This should give us a better chance of survival. So captains, I want your thoughts.”
There was a pause as each of the captains thought about their situation. It was Capt. James Anniston who spoke first. “Sir, it all depends on what we think the difference in our chance of survival are between staying the course and making a run for it right now. Normally I am not suicidal, and would have recommended that we make a run for it. However, I am not so sure that our chances of survival are that much greater if we run. Call it gut feel, but I have been thinking on the question you asked about the Shaitan Warmaster. It seems reckless and foolish to risk ten warships to destroy two of the enemy.
“Unless the Warmaster is an incompetent nincompoop, which seems unlikely given what we have seen of his response so far, there is something that the Warmaster knows that we don’t. I have a feeling it has to do with the weapon he has at his disposal to try and destroy us. I think he has a new weapon, your theoretical Shaitan sand missile at his disposal, and is fairly confident that even a single Shaitan warship would be able to destroy both of ours. I think that this time the Shaitans have learnt and adapted from us much faster that they had ever done previously.
“So, even if he is confident of destroying us, why is he risking ten warships to destroy two of ours? If the Shaitans have developed their own sand missiles, then they would also know its limitations. The Warmaster would have guessed correctly that our MKK-1 missiles cannot have a great range, since theirs probably don’t have that great a range either due to the amount of mass that each missile needs to carry. So the Warmaster does not believe he is putting ten of his warships in danger at all.
“He expects us to make a run for it at some time, and expects only the one or two warships who would intercept us to be in danger. In case we don’t make a run for it, then none of the eight warships surrounding our path is in danger, and only the two warships waiting on our path to intercept us will be in danger. I would say that the Warmaster has surmised the situation well. It is fairly close to the reality. That is why sir, I think our chances are dim in either case.
“If I am wrong about the Shaitan having sand missiles or some form of frag missiles, then the Warmaster has taken a foolish chance. The Warmaster knows that we have MKK-1 sand missiles which have a high probability of destroying any ship it can get near at this high velocity, while our ships would be relatively risk free because normal missiles have a very low probability of hitting us. The fact that I don’t think a Warmaster could have risen to that rank being so foolish makes me believe in the worst case scenario.” Capt. Anniston ended gloomily.
“Ronnie. What are your thoughts?” Elvis asked his flag captain.
“Frankly sir, I was going to recommend that we make a run for it before I heard James, because I am not suicidal either. After hearing James, though, I am not so sure. His analysis seems logical, and I cannot find much flaw in it. You may have been right sir, this may be more of a test of our characters than anything else. If our fates are truly sealed, then for my part, I would like to take down as many Shaitans and their warships as possible along with me, and I have a plan to do that. Unfortunately it requires us to put up the most precious thing we have as a bait… our lives. If our lives are forfeit, then I guess it is not such a big deal anyway.” Capt. Lowe said with a sense of fatalistic determination.
“I wouldn’t be that pessimistic about our chances of survival yet. I am hoping for the best, but I would rather prepare for the worst. So let us hear your plan.” Elvis asked Capt. Lowe.
“James is right. If we are to stay on our straight course, then the eight warships encircling the point of where we cross Dante will be out of the range of our MKK-1 missiles. The assumption here is that the MKK-1 missiles would have to make it on their own thrusters to those eight warships in the last few hours before we cross Dante. We could always launch those MKK-1 missiles immediately and let them thrust laterally towards where the eight Shaitan warships would be in two weeks, this will give the missiles enough time to cover the distance, but the Shaitans must have their telescopes trained at us like a hawk. They would immediately know something has been launched laterally by the thruster signature of the MKK-1 missiles and would take evasive action accordingly. The MKK-1 missiles launched so early would not be able to do anything to counter that, since it would have burnt up most of its fuel.
“But the Shaitans are not the only one who can benefit from having detected us early and have enough time to prepare. We can take advantage of the time of just over two weeks to the crossing as well. My initial calculation, which I ran on the mainframe while James was speaking tells me that if we were to launch the MKK-1 missiles immediately with the maximum push that the pneumatic ejectors can impart, then the momentum will take the MKK-1 missiles a long way in space in the next two weeks in the direction of those eight ships.
“The distance travelled laterally in the next two weeks will not be nearly enough to take the MKK-1 missiles anywhere close to the Shaitan ships, but it helps. It will have to be augmented with the thrusters of the MKK-1 missiles. But as I said earlier, it will still not be enough if the thrusters were opened up in the last few hours, which is the amount of time the thrusters of the missile can last, because enough distance would not be covered. We need to open up the thrusters early, so that the missiles have time to build up speed and travel the distance. But as I said before, if we do open up the thrusters of the missiles earlier, the Shaitans would be aware of it and avoid it.
“So I did my calculation. If we launch the MKK-1 missiles right now and start them off at one percent of the thrust immediately. The missiles have over two weeks to accelerate. The fuel would last a few hundred hours when it is continuously accelerating, albeit at a very slow rate. The emission signature of one percent of the thrust of the MKK-1 missile is so low that at least our ship based telescopes would definitely not be able to detect them from the distance at which the Shaitan ships are. Even if the Shaitan telescopes are more than twice as sensitive as ours, which if my knowledge serves me right, they aren’t, they will not be able to detect the MKK-1 thruster signature.
“The only telescopes that can detect such a weak amount of light emission at that distance would be those huge space based telescopes we use for astronomy and research. To the best of our knowledge, there is no such telescope on Beta Shaitan. Still, to be extra cautious, I suggest that we let the MKK-1 missiles travel for some time on the momentum imparted by the pneumatic ejectors, so that they most likely move out of the frame of the telescopes which are trained at us. Then they open up their thrusters at 1% and continue their slow acceleration. My initial calculations show that we can get those missiles fairly close to the anticipated position of the ships. We will have to reserve five to ten percent of the fuel of the missiles for last minute adjustments that would be made at full thrust.
“The thing
is that, during the whole time that we travel towards Beta Shaitan, we will have to stay on course to ensure that none of the eight ships can afford to move away from their positions. Once we are past Dante, we can make a 90⁰ turn and try to avoid the two Shaitan warships that will be in our way in a few hours after the crossing. Unfortunately the Shaitans are aware of that possibility and have positioned those two warships at such a distance that we will not be able to avoid those two ships’ missiles even if we are able to avoid the two warships themselves, because we have slightly better acceleration on our ships.
“It is no worse than any of the options we have right now, because we will have to run the gauntlet of one of the warships in any case. The Warmaster has placed his warships in such a way as to ensure that. So we run that gauntlet and pray for the best. Even if the worst were to come to pass, we will have the satisfaction of knowing that those two ships would also be toast, for there is no way they can evade our MKK-1 missiles coming at them almost head-on.” Capt. Lowe finished laying out his idea and looked at Elvis to see his reaction.
Elvis faced the screen and asked Capt. Anniston. “James? Your thoughts on Ronnie’s plan?”
“I can’t think of anything better, sir. I think Ronnie’s plan gives us the highest probability of success.” Capt. Anniston replied.
“It also has the highest probability of our destruction. Whatever hope we have of getting out of this alive reduces drastically with this plan.” Elvis reminded Capt. Anniston.
“With respect sir, we didn’t come all the way here after years of journey for the purpose of preserving our lives, although I would not dream of throwing away the lives of my crew for nothing. We came here for the purpose of hurting the Shaitans and setting them back militarily, so that they cannot attack Earth. That still remains our primary goal. Getting a chance at killing ten Shaitan warships is a good enough goal, as far as I am concerned, to put our ships and their crews in the line of fire. If we get out of this alive, then we will celebrate on the other side. If we don’t, well… we all knew the danger when we signed up for the navy.” Capt. Anniston replied.